How Republicans Will Win the Senate

By: Dick Morris & Eileen McGann

If the Republican Party wins every Senate seat in which it now holds a lead, according to Rasmussen’s polls, it will capture eight Democratic seats while holding all of its own.

The two remaining pickups, to assure control, could be in Indiana, where former Sen. Dan Coats may run against Sen. Evan Bayh, and in California. Even if Coats does not run, former Congressman John Hostettler is behind Bayh by only 44-41 percent. And, in California, former Hewlett-Packard CEO Carly Fiorina is only 3 points behind Sen. Barbara Boxer.

(This assumes that former Wisconsin Gov. Tommy Thompson takes on Sen. Russ Feingold).

In these eight races, the Republican is ahead:

State	Contest	Latest Polling	Date
Delaware	Castle vs. Coons	Castle +29	Jan.
North Dakota	Hoeven vs. unknown	Hoeven +20 (vs. Dorgan)	Dec.
Arkansas	Lincoln. vs. 4 opps	Republican (Baker) +19	Feb.
Nevada	Reid vs. 4 opps.	Republican (Tarkanian) +8	Feb.
Colorado	Norton vs. Bennet	Norton +14	Feb.
Pennsylvania	Toomey vs. Specter	Toomey +9	Jan.
Illinois	Kirk vs. Giannoulias	Kirk +6	Feb.
Wisconsin	Thompson vs. Feingold	Thompson +3	Jan.

And, in these two states, the results are close:

State	Contest	Latest Polling	Date
California	Boxer vs. 3 opps.	Boxer (vs. Fiorina) +3	Jan.
Indiana	Bayh vs. Hostettler	Bayh + 3	Jan.

If Republicans take all 10 seats, they take control in the Senate.

In addition, strong challenges may be shaping up in New York against Kirsten Gillibrand and in Washington State against Patty Murray.

Gillibrand, appointed to fill Hillary Clinton's seat, is very vulnerable, both in a primary against former Tennessee Democratic Congressman Harold Ford and in a general election. If a strong candidate emerges, she and/or Ford could be defeated.

And in Washington state, innovative businessman (and millionaire) Paul Akers is likely to run against Patty Murray. The Washington state senator won with only 55 percent of the vote last time, a poor performance for a three-term incumbent. Akers' company takes new technologies, buys them, and then uses them to create jobs. He should give Murray a tough race which he could end up winning.

But the message of Massachusetts is that any Republican can beat any Democrat anywhere. So don't count out former Congressman Rob Simmons' race against Connecticut Attorney General Richard Blumenthal or any possible candidate against Oregon's Ron Wyden and New York's Chuck Schumer.

The Republicans will win the Senate (and the House) — and might win it with a few seats to spare!